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Where Are Our Winters

Winters in the Ice Box of Connecticut have been getting warmer, and this one is no exception. While the mercury did drop at times, data from the GMF weather station through February this year reveals a familiar trend: above-average temperatures and below-average snowfall.

GMF Property Manager and Head Weather Observer Russell Russ said that “the figures tell a pretty good story— or a bad story if you love snow.” Since 1998 annual (especially wintertime) temperatures have increased at the GMF weather station, while snowfall totals have decreased.

These trends have impacted long-cherished winter recreation opportunities in the Northwest Corner in tangible ways, shortening the Nordic and alpine ski season and eliminating ice fishing on certain lakes in especially warm years. Climatic changes have also had profound impacts on the ecology of forests—many of which researchers are just starting to understand.

The weather station and warming winters

The GMF weather station, known as Norfolk 2SW, is a National Weather Service (NWS) Cooperative Weather Observer Station. It is one of 165 stations in Connecticut which the NWS uses to catalog weather records, and has been used to record weather observations every day since January 1, 1932.

Russ is GMF’s lead weather observer, a position he took over from his father, Forest Manager Darrell Russ, in 2003. He has contributed an additional 22 years of weather data to GMF’s and the NWS’ records, building on the over five decades of readings provided by his father.

After Russ compiled data from the 93 complete annual records since 1932, he found that 10 of the 12 warmest winters on record at Norfolk 2SW were logged since the year 2000. 2024 holds the title as the warmest with an average annual temperature of 48.6ºF, 3.6ºF above the 89-year average of 45ºF from 1932-2020. 2023 and 1998 are tied in third place at 48.4F.

While this winter may have felt frigid at times compared to recent years, the data indicates that monthly averages have remained high, ranging from 5.3ºF warmer than normal in November to 0.2ºF above average in January.

No snow, no grow?

Temperatures this winter have at least stayed closer to normal than many recent years, however snowfall has lagged far behind. Only 38.4 inches have accumulated as of March 1, while the weather station normally averages 65.1 inches through February.

GMF weather observer Russell Russ poses after 24 inches of snow fell in October 2011.

Low snow years are becoming increasingly commonplace at GMF, which on average receives nearly 90 inches of snowfall. Last winter totaled only 45.5 inches of snow between October and May, making it the 6th least snowy winter in Norfolk 2SW’s records, while all similarly low-snow years have occurred in the past several decades. By contrast, only one of the top 15 snowiest years in Russ’ data archive came after the early 1980s – a particularly snowy 1995-1996 season.

Lower snow yields and warmer temperatures mean that a persistent winter snowpack blanketing the forest floor in Northwest Connecticut may be reduced or eliminated entirely, a scenario which could have negative impacts on forest ecosystems. Research within the past two decades has highlighted how the cold season is “functionally important” to the growing season, according to a 2012 study on snowpack decline and its repercussions in a New Hampshire Forest.

Long thought to be a “dormant season,” winter sees the active continuation of nutrient exchange between roots and soils, a process aided by the insulation of a robust snowpack. Kept at or above freezing, nutrients such as nitrate and phosphate circulate within root systems, keeping trees healthy. A thin or absent snowpack combined with cold temperatures, which has occurred extensively this winter, can freeze soils and interrupt this process. Key species of the New England forest, such as sugar maple and yellow birch, are particularly susceptible to deep freeze-thaw cycles like those of December and January this season. According to a more recent study on the impacts of climate change on winter-dependent biomes, a “deep and long-lasting snowpack drives water and nutrient availability at the start of the growing season.”

Another paper on increased winter runoff events emphasizes that “the synchrony of spring nutrient availability and nutrient uptake” – meaning when spring thaw and plant growth occur simultaneously – is important for natural ecosystems. The paper also finds that midwinter thaws “pose an ongoing and increasing risk to water quality in snow-covered regions,” but that further research is required to identify specific dangers.

Impacts from reduced snowpack and warmer temperatures extend beyond plants to which animal species may thrive in our woodlands. In several instances, white-tailed deer have been shown to succeed in landscapes with reduced snowpack, replacing moose as the dominant browsing species in winter. Different herbivores favor different tree species, so a shift in which herbivore is more common can lead to  cascading impacts on forest plant communities, according to the 2024 paper.

Finally, the livelihood and function of a working forest may be altered by diminished snowfall. The 2012 study predicts the maple sap-harvesting season to be shortened by half and the sap yield reduced “by 20% or more” by the end of the century in New England. The paper also anticipates an earlier and prolonged mud season, potentially affecting winter timber harvests which benefit from frozen and snow-covered roads to protect soils from compaction and erosion.

Ice out

Reduced ice cover on lakes and ponds is “a key indicator of changing winter climate globally,” states the 2024 study, and this is consistent with GMF’s water bodies. Russell Russ has tracked ice-in and ice-out dates since 2000, and maintains that lakes and ponds are freezing over about two weeks later than in “the old days,” and melting about two weeks earlier.

Tobey Pond with open water in January, 2025. Photo: Alec Linden.

Northern lakes normally experience “inverse stratification” during normal ice cover, when colder water rises to near the surface ice and warmer water sinks beneath. Alternatively, when ice is absent from the surface, these lakes often stratify with warmer water layering above cooler water. Reduced ice cover disrupts the normal circulation of nutrients throughout the lake as the seasons change.

The 2024 study notes that these changes may affect phytoplankton, which serve as the base of the aquatic food webs. One report shows that a specific species of phytoplankton, the diatom Discostella stelligera, has become increasingly abundant – even dominant – in northern lakes. Diatoms are an important component of lake food chains, so the drastic shift in species profile may have cascading ramifications for these ecosystems.

The aquatic life of our lakes is dependent on ice cover, just as the flora and fauna populating the forested landscapes of the Northwest Corner rely on snow cover. As these features of the landscape melt away, researchers are realizing that many surprises are in store as the cold winters of memory fade into the past.

Winter’s Rest

The Winter of Our Lives

Our animal relatives have much to teach us about winter as a season of rest and renewal. Some of us might associate hibernation as a retreat from reality and torpor as a state of apathy and laziness. However, in her memoir Wintering, Katherine May likens difficult times in our lives to winter and writes, “Plants and animals don’t fight the winter; they don’t pretend it’s not happening and attempt to live the same lives that they lived in the summer. They prepare. They adapt. They perform extraordinary acts of metamorphosis to get them through. Winter is a time of withdrawing from the world, maximizing scant resources, carrying out acts of brutal efficiency and vanishing from sight; but that’s where the transformation occurs. Winter is not the death of the life cycle, but its crucible.”

A Torpor Over the Forest

As the temperatures become consistently colder, the forest’s animals begin to slow down and prepare for winter. Deer and moose grow thick coats, decrease movement, and start foraging for food. Squirrels hunt for nuts and seeds to store in a cache while bulking up their nests. Birds begin migrating to their warmer winter destination. Beavers submerge limbs with leaves near their well-insulated lodge so they can feed on them throughout the winter. 

Degrees of Hibernation

Some forest animals opt out of all that cold weather activity. They sleep. This long winter’s nap is commonly known as hibernation, and there is a variation called “torpor.” Both represent a depressed metabolic state, but there are key differences. 

Hibernation is longer term, lasting weeks or months. During that time, metabolism, body temperature, and heart rate decrease dramatically, breathing becomes shallow, and the animal relies on stored fat for nutrition. Animals enter hibernation voluntarily to prepare for the cold winter months and lack of food. 

Winter Bear Necessities

Ironically, the animal we most associate with hibernation–the bear–enters a state of torpor, along with smaller mammals such as mice and chipmunks. Torpor’s decreased metabolic state is much shorter, lasting hours to days.

While the bear’s metabolism slows down in torpor, it’s not nearly as marked as in true hibernation. For animals that enter a torpor state, it’s an involuntary response to colder weather. The black bear needs temperatures consistently below 40 degrees to enter torpor, and there’s no guarantee they will stay there if temperatures start to climb. 

Do Not Disturb

In this lighter state of unconsciousness, a bear in torpor can be easily roused by noise or disturbance. While we might have images of bears retreating to caves for their winter’s rest, there’s a housing shortage of those structures and not enough to go around! Bears ride out their torpor under fallen trees and rocky crevices, making GMF’s glacial erratics prime winter real estate. In a pinch, bears may create a shallow nest in the ground or a hollow log and cover themselves with a blanket of leaves, moss, and other loose forest ground cover.

Cold-Blooded Sleepers

The equivalent of hibernation for turtles and frogs is known as brumation. This involves decreased body temperature, heart rate, and circulation during the colder months. Frogs and turtles hibernate at the bottom of GMF’s ponds, covered in mud, waiting out the winter and dreaming of warmer temperatures. Glycogen in their blood allows them to absorb oxygen in these watery beds.

Rising Spring

When temperatures rise in the spring, GMF’s animals begin to rouse and lethargically emerge from hibernation and torpor, confused, slow, and disoriented. They quickly acclimate and begin a quest for food and water to replenish their reserves, depleted over the cold winter months. Heavier coats grown to preserve heat are now shed in preparation for the warmer months. Bears, capable of giving birth during torpor, prioritize the feeding and safety of their cubs. And with the end of hibernation also comes the mating season in the forest when new energy and life begin in earnest. 

Mystery Forge

The forest holds its secrets. Trees grow, leaves and other detritus accumulate, and they draw a curtain over even the most industrious, permanent seeming human activities. Memory is fragile, and places like the Brown Brook sawmill might be lost forever if not for old maps. Even so, casual visitors still might not find it without knowing the telltale signs. Such was the case with a spot called “Old Forge,” which Russell Russ found marked on a map that had been lost for years among voluminous files. A forge is a blacksmith’s shop where cast iron from a blast furnace is processed into wrought iron by repeated heating and hammering, and then turned into useful objects from hinges to horseshoes.

Agile and rangy, Russell is a master of map and compass, able to locate the most obscure boundary markers. He can find stone piles or an iron pin lost for decades, barbed wire strands on the rotting stump of an ancient witness trees mentioned in nineteenth century deeds. His father, Darrell, was Ted Childs’ forester from the early 1950s to the start of the 1990s, and Russell grew up around the mountain, also becoming a forester. He has an instinctual sense of the landscape, as if it were a genetic inheritance.

With a combination of maps and intuitive knowledge, Russell and forest manager Jody Bronson found the forge after bushwhacking a few miles and nosed around the spot marked on the old sketch. Bronson is a bearded bear of a man, a forester who worked at GMF from 1976 to 2022, learning from Ted Childs and Darrell Russ, and over the years taking an understanding of this place to yet a new level. His house is on the slope of Canaan Mountain, at the southwest boundary of GMF, and he knows the forest so well that he is not so much ever in the forest as he is of the forest. His father and grandfather were ardent conservationists, acquiring state forest and parkland, fighting wildfires, establishing trails. Protecting and living with the natural world is in his blood.

On an unusually warm and foggy mid-October morning that oozed a slight drizzle, Russell, Ralph, Jody and I set out for the recently rediscovered forge with forest ecologist and former GMF board member Charlie Canham. Soft spoken and professorial, no scientist has conducted more field studies at GMF than Charlie and his colleagues—resulting in over 40 peer-reviewed publications between 1993 and 2000, on everything from nutrient cycling to seed dispersal

From the East Gate near the forestry office, we drove the Camp Road and took Number 4 Trail (a moniker earned as a nineteenth century charcoal road), parking just past the Crissey Trail, a footpath running westerly to Chattleton Road and easterly back to our starting point. Dampened hemlock and laurel glistened darkly among the flaming deciduous branches, and the mist seemed to smooth out the rugged countryside that faded with distance.

Venturing into the woods from the east side of the road, we found ourselves on uneven ground among beech, oak, maple and hemlock. Leaves were falling, and many branches above were already bare. But the understory, especially small beeches, were still full of leaves ranging from yellow to taupe, to the color of tanned leather or, at times, a dull orange. They grew in clusters and stood out against the somber hemlocks, like autumn’s lanterns.

We passed mossy ledges, found clusters of moose scat piled like dark brown ball bearings, and skirted a swamp dotted with pointy, shaggy spruce. Winterberry, kind of holly with bright red berries, was common. Mountain laurel grew in dense thickets.

Turning south, we made our way through a valley between the Bishop’s Cave cliffs and distant Crissey Ridge, following a small stream connecting a series of wetlands. Soon we came to a red spruce swamp, fairly open with tussocks of grasses and tangles of shrubs. Some of the trees were unusually large, and Jody estimated one near the edge at about 85 or 90 feet tall with a trunk 20 inches dbh (diameter at breast height).

“Nineteenth century Adirondack boat builders prized red spruce roots for a curvature that made excellent ribs,” Charlie said. An expert woodworker and crafter of small boats, he could not only see the trees standing in front of us, but the hue and grain of wood that might become a shiplap plank, a table, or footstool.

Just beyond the swamp, was a massive glacial boulder perched on other rocks in such a way as to create a passage beneath it that a person could crawl through. A full-grown hemlock had picturesquely fallen on it, and a pole-sized white pine grew out of a narrow crevice near the top, standing like a ship’s mast. The great rock had a somewhat hirsute quality with a spotty covering of lichen, leathery liverwort, and polypody ferns. Surrounding rocks were adorned with plush moss, soft like pillows. We looked at the boulder from all angles, conjuring various likenesses—a hippo, the prow of a ship.

“You’ve got to wonder where this thing came from, how far it traveled in the belly of the ice,” Charlie said as he took off his glasses and wiped the lenses. “Standing here now, the notion of a mile-thick frozen mass slowly oozing down from the north, and powerful enough to carry something this size, seems almost crazy.”  Momentarily, we stood in silent awe. A light breeze rippled through the tree canopy.

“Where else would you find four grown men who would spend a full 15 minutes marveling over a big rock,” Ralph said at last, shaking his head. We laughed but shared a little-boy sense of wonder that was a matter of pride and drew us closer together. It wasn’t the last time that day, or on others, that we communed over glacial handiwork.

Not long after, we encountered another red spruce swamp, this one more open and less wet. A few twisted, misshapen, and broken black gum trees grew among the conifers. They looked like sylvan survivors of a battlefield, reminded me of pictures of Gettysburg after the shooting stopped. 

“They don’t grow very big and they look kind if scraggly, but these Nyssa may be some of the oldest trees in the forest,” Jody explained, using the Latin name for the genus. “The heartwood tends to rot from a fairly young age, and lumbermen don’t want a hollow tree. The wood is brittle, and the trunks and limbs tend to snap off in high winds rather than topple over and die.”

“Right under the bark, are lots of dormant epicormic buds.” Charlie said. “They sprout into new branches when sunlight hits them.” 

“Looks like something scary from an enchanted fairytale forest,” I said.

“They may not be pretty,” Ralph added, “but they’re survivors, tell stories of past storms.”

Skirting the swamp, we spotted a man in a blue jacket holding a camera, straight gray hair visible below a floppy hat. Tom Blagden, an award-winning nature photographer who has captured the country’s beauty from the Grand Canyon to Acadia National Park, had spent the morning unsuccessfully looking for moose. A native of the area, he frequented GMF for its wildness, capturing images he could find nowhere else nearby.

“Looking for moose and you found us,” Jody said with a broad grin. “I hope you’re not too disappointed.”

“You don’t see me snapping pictures do you,” Tom quipped. Our laughter probably didn’t draw moose any closer.

We walked through hemlock, beech and some red oak along the swamp’s edge, following the slow, winding outlet stream as it made its way around rocks and along uneven ground among black cherry and yellow and black birch that grew alongside more hemlock and beech. We’d step into amber deciduous light and then into conifer gloaming and back again. A phragmites swamp still had some green reeds, and the Crissey Ridge behind it in the distance was a floral arrangement of fall color.

The woods echoed with conversation and laughter as we walked. We talked about our families and work, but mostly about acorns, wind dispersion of pine pollen, the reproductive success of birch catkins and maple samaras. Later, my wife asked what we talked about. “What a bunch of tree nerds,” she sighed, “gabbing about the sex life of trees.”  I took it as a high compliment. 

Following a long, low outcrop of mossy ledge dotted with pockets of soft sphagnum, we at last arrived the impoundment that once furnished the forge’s waterpower. A droughty period had lefty the pond low, with wide, muddy margins which were unavoidable in spots. Our footsteps sank a few inches in the ooze, yielding a squishy sucking sound and prints that would last until the water rose again. A few large rocks punctuated the shore, along with silvered standing deadwood and grassy tussocks. Near the outlet, was a conical pile of sticks—an old beaver lodge.

Just below a breached beaver dam, we found a small, tree-shaded glade where the pond’s water tumbled over a two-foot-high rock shelf, foaming and singing as it fell into a pool before becoming a stream speeding into the woods. Here was the forge site. It was an inviting spot with its running water and dappled sunlight, a good place to kick back and have lunch. We lay down our packs, found logs or rocks to sit on, and pulled out brown bags and water bottles. The air was spiced with moisture and newly fallen leaves that had a slightly nutty scent, reminding me of jumping into piles as a kid.

The natural dam of ledge appeared to have been augmented once by earth and stone, creating a larger body of water behind it. But like the beaver dam, it had been broken by decades of powerful freshets.

The pool was clear, with a pebbly bottom, and water exited via a natural channel in the ledge. Four fieldstone piers stood along the east bank where likely there had been a building leaning over the stream. A large rectangular stone and other seemingly purposeful arrangements of rock were clearly not the work of the glacier or other natural forces. Chunks of firebrick were strewn in the water, with a few on the bank. Hard to read after perhaps a century-and-a-half of weathering, they were imprinted: “Newton, Albany, New York.”  Russell’s internet search for information on the company and its bricks after he and Jody made their first visit proved fruitless. 

“Based on what I know about old-time blacksmith’s shops,” Jody began “I imagine this one was probably a small, single-room log shed with a dirt floor. Maybe there was a window, but maybe not. The firebrick is from the forge, which burned charcoal and was likely vented through a chimney. Coals were blown red hot with a bellows driven by a small waterwheel at the dam.”

“Must have looked and sounded like a dragon breathing,” I said.

Charlie pointed his half-eaten sandwich at me. “A poetic way of looking, for sure, but I doubt the blacksmith would have thought of it that way.” 

“You never know,” Russell chimed in, “there’s Dragon Swamp not far to the south of us. I think some of the early owners wanted to scare folks away with tales of man-eating dragons. These days, it’s mostly called Wildcat Swamp.”

“Well, that’s an improvement from a real estate marketing viewpoint, I suppose.”  We laughed.

“Heated metal was retrieved from the fire with tongs,” Jody continued, “and hammered into shape on an anvil. Blacksmiths also used forms, chisels, and wedges—probably ones they made themselves. Along the wall and in corners there were probably piles of charcoal and scrap. Every inch of space was used.”

“From what I’ve read,” Charlie said, “they rarely wore gloves because they wanted to feel the metal. Amazing. But, a cowhide apron from the waist to below the knees was practically universal”

“Who’s forge, was it?” Ralph asked. All eyes turned to Russell, who had long been a bloodhound when it came to tracking down obscure history in old GMF flies. His 1978 eighth grade report on the history of this part of the forest still served as an excellent reference. But Russell just shrugged.

“I’ve looked through old deeds, maps, surveys and other documents without luck. Exactly when the site was active, and what products they made for whom remains a mystery.” 

Jody led me to a laurel thicket on a slight rise just above the pool, and showed me some heavy, rusted lengths of iron strapping, some pieces curved. He and Russell had discovered them on their first visit. They were thick and stiff, the flat ones reminding me of vehicle springs. It looked as if they might have been able to be linked. What they were used for, was unknown.

This little oasis in the woods was so peaceful that despite contrary evidence it was hard to believe it had once been a small industrial site, a place of fire, hammering, active human hands and sweat. Technology had its day here, but this land could only sustain it so far. In time, the scale of industry outgrew this place. Inventions of human imagination became too great to be contained here. But energy resided in these woods beyond what nature alone could offer. So, I listened to the musical splash of running water, the one constant in this spot since the glacier retreated.

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